Israel's Elections
Sermon, April 7, 2006
Rabbi Bruce Kadden

Last week, Israeli voters went to the polls, electing the 120 members of the K’nesset and setting in motion the process for the creation of a new government.  As expected, Kadima, the party formed by Ariel Sharon and now led by Ehud Olmert, garnered the most votes, translating to 29 seats. 

When Ariel Sharon first announced the creation of this new party, polls showed that it could win more than 40 seats.  Although its support began to diminish, as expected, as the election drew near, it had been predicted that it would emerge with at least 35 seats.  Thus, only winning 29 was a great disappointment.  On the other hand, it far outpolled its closest rival, Labor, which ended up with 19 seats, and trounced Likud, Sharon and Olmert’s former party, which received just 12 seats.

The real surprise in this election was the sudden emergence of the Pensioner’s party, whose primary focus is on securing financial support for Israel’s elderly.  A week before the election it was unclear whether they would receive the 2 percent of the vote necessary to be represented in the K’nesset, yet they emerged with seven seats. 

With the votes in, the attention now turns to the creation of a ruling coalition of parties that will be able to muster a majority of the K’nesset votes.  President Moshe Katzav has extended the invitation to form the coalition to Olmert.  It is virtually certain that he invite Labor to be part of the coalition, offering either the Ministry of Finance or the Ministry of Defense to Amir Peretz, their leader. 

In addition, it is expected that the Pensioners party will join the government.  Other possible coalition partners are the religious parties Shas and United Torah Judaism and the left-wing Meretz party, although it is unlikely that all three would join the government.  Olmert needs one of the religious parties and would prefer Shas because it has 12 seats, twice as many as United Torah Judaism. 

The real question is whether either of these parties will support Olmert, given his intention to continue unilateral disengagement, including dismantling a significant number of settlements on the West Bank.  They have not indicated their absolute opposition to his proposal, but neither have they endorsed it.  In the past, they have demanded support for their religious schools as well as the maintenance of the religious status quo in return for their support.  If Olmert is able to make them an offer to be part of the government that they cannot refuse, expect them to be part of the coalition.

The opposition will consist of Likud, the new Israel Our Home party, which strongly opposes any withdrawal from the settlements, and the National Religious Party.  Together they have 32 seats

In addition, three Arab parties have 10 seats.  While they will not be part of the coalition, in the past they have sometimes supported Labor governments, particularly their efforts in the peace process.  However, they are not likely to support unilateral disengagement because it is not a mutually agreed upon settlement, and is viewed by Palestinians as a one-sided attempt to impose a solution on the Arabs.

The real question is whether Olmert will be able to form a strong, stable coalition that will allow him to implement his agenda, particularly his disengagement plan or a weak, tenuous coalition, which will prevent him from taking decisive action for fear of losing an essential coalition partner. 

Let us pray that Olmert will be able to form a strong and stable government that will allow him to move forward with his proposals, for a strong and stable government is an essential element to a strong a stable Israel.

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