Israel:  What Now?
Sermon, January 6, 2006
Rabbi Bruce Kadden

The serious stroke that has threatened the life of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has raised significant questions about Israel’s political future, particularly the elections scheduled for March.  As Sharon clings to life, speculation has already begun about the elections, particularly the fate of Kadima, the party that Sharon recently created to bring together those in the political center.

Before I offer some remarks about the political future, let me say a few words about Sharon.  Even those who are optimistic about his recovery from the stroke admit that he will never be able to return to his position as Prime Minister.  Everyone agrees that the Sharon era is over.

His political career was remarkable, considering that he was, for many years, seen by those on the Israeli left as the symbol of intransigence and a “greater Israel.”  Particularly after the War in Lebanon and the massacres at the Sabra and Shatilla refuge camps, for which a government commission held Sharon responsible, his return to power was nothing short of incredible.  Although some individuals on the political left remained staunchly opposed to him, he was able to forge a position that appealed to the Israel center.

After losing the support of many members of his own Likud party because of his decision to remove all settlements from Gaza as well as a few from the West Bank, he created a new party, Kadima, which –according to recent polls—would have garnered a significant plurality of votes in the upcoming elections, strengthening Sharon’s hand in the next government. 

He was viewed by many as invincible.  On Tuesday evening, the Reform Rabbis at the PARR conference heard from the Consul General of Israel to Los Angeles.  He was optimistic about Israel’s future under Sharon, and when someone asked about Sharon’s health, in light of the minor stroke he suffered a couple of weeks ago, the Consul General blew off the question and assured us that Sharon would be fine. 

The next morning everything changed.  Ehud Olmert, a staunch supporter or Sharon and former major of Jerusalem, and appointed to the position of Deputy Prime Minister by Sharon, became Acting Prime Minister.  If Sharon should pass away, or if it should become clear that he is permanently incapacitated, then Israel’s cabinet would choose an acting Prime Minister from among those cabinet ministers who are members of Sharon’s party and members of the K’nesset.  While the cabinet is likely to select Olmert under these circumstances, other cabinet ministers, such as Tzipi Livni and Meir Sheetrit have also been suggested.

What is certain is that the elections scheduled for March 28 will be held on that date, as the law allowing elections to be postponed only applies to a situation when they cannot be held, as, for example, a time of war.

Olmert and the Kadima party are the frontrunners in polls conducted since Sharon’s second stroke.  The party would win 40 seats, a significant plurality, according to one poll.  If Shimon Peres led the Kadima ticket, the party would win 42 seats, according to the poll, but it is unlikely that he would be chosen to head the ticket since most of Kadima’s support comes from Likud, rather than Labor.  There is even speculation that Peres would return to the Labor party as number two on the ticket behind Amir Peretz, but that is also unlikely to happen.

The real question is whether Kadima, led by Olmert, will be able to maintain its significant lead in the polls, as Likud and Labor will attempt to woo former party members back into the fold.  Although Olmert has been staunchly loyal to Sharon, he is not considered charismatic.  Even if Kadima wins the election, but with far fewer than 40 seats, it would be much more difficult for Olmert to form an effective coalition.

The uncertainty of Israel’s political future has already caused the Israeli stock market to drop four percent and has prompted Secretary of State Condolezza Rice to postpone her trip to Indonesia and Australia to remain in Washington and monitor the situation.  Columnist Charles Krauthammer has written that Sharon’s stroke could be “one of the great disasters” in Israel’s 60-year history.  This opinion is based on the widely-held view that Sharon is the only person who can effectively lead Kadima and represent the Israeli center.  There is clearly no one with his stature and respect, but that does not mean that other leaders cannot continue his legacy.

By creating Kadima, he has implemented the first step in empowering the Israeli centrists, and establishing a potent political movement.  His decision to leave Likud has greatly undermined the Israeli right, and the decision of Shimon Peres to support Kadima, has significantly affected the Labor party, although it remains strong, and a likely coalition partner for a Kadima-led government. 

Together, Olmert and Peres share wide respect and admiration.  Both have extensive experience and both were committed to Sharon’s most recent political agenda.  It is hard to see any other political leader, or combination of political leaders, who would be able to affectively lead Israel in these trying times.

Let me conclude my remarks by sharing “A prayer for the prime minister” by journalist Bradley Burston:

Say a prayer for the prime minister.

Say a prayer for the man who could not be broken.

Say a prayer for our shattered present. Say a prayer for our shuttered common future.

Pray for the man who could not be stilled. Pray for the man who could not be swayed.

Say a prayer for the future only he knew.

Say a prayer for the people he has left behind. The Jewish People, the people he loved, at times despite himself, despite them. The people who could not bring themselves to love him.

Pray for those of us who once embraced him, and came to curse him.

Pray for those of us who once cursed him, and could not bring ourselves to forgive him.

Pray for those of us who once cursed him, and came to love him.

Pray for those who call themselves religious and see in this, the hand of God.

Pray for those who call themselves non-religious and need now to pray.

Pray for the leaders who, unable to replace him, will now succeed him.

Pray for a miracle. Pray for all of us. Pray that we may know to heal each other.

Pray for this land. That it may know the peace that he never will.

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